Author

Jay Patel

Markets Micro22 Apr 2026

Betting on Everything: How Prediction Markets Price the Future

Prediction markets are booming, with Bernstein projecting $240 billion in volume this year. The case for why they work is compelling. The case for why they might not is just as important.

Prediction Markets Polymarket Efficient Market Hypothesis Price Discovery Competition

Jay Patel9 min read

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Markets5 Apr 2026

Turbulence Ahead: Why Airlines Cannot Simply Pass On the Oil Shock

Jet fuel prices have doubled since February, but airlines face a microeconomic bind: raise fares too fast and passengers vanish, raise them too slowly and margins collapse.

Airlines Oil Prices Price Elasticity Iran Microeconomics

Jay Patel7 min read

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