Macro23rd September 2026
Four years after default, Sri Lanka has growth, reserves and a near-complete restructuring, and an IMF review that just ended without agreement. The recovery keeps getting rescheduled, not resolved.
Raghu Kohli7 min read
MacroPublic Policy13th September 2026
South Africa's six-quarter growth streak just got broken by a trade drag. Weeks after the quarter closed, the port meant to fix that blockage fell over
Raghu Kohli6 min read
Macro9th September 2026
Chile has taken majority control of its lithium and investors have stayed. Peru has kept a market-friendly framework and watched output stall. What capital is pricing is not ideology but whether a government can bind its successors
Raghu Kohli7 min read
Macro2nd September 2026
Nigeria's currency, reserves and growth are stronger than they have been in years, but poverty and inflation numbers show the recovery has not yet reached most households.
Raghu Kohli6 min read
Macro17th August 2026
Payroll shocks and tame inflation managed to undo a month of Fed hawkishness. The economy just got worse, but Wall Street just got happier.
Raghu Kohli8 min read
Macro15th July 2026
China's factories are shipping more than they have in years, driven by an AI-fuelled tech boom. Yet second-quarter growth still slowed to 4.3%, its weakest in decades outside the pandemic, a reminder that strong exports don't always mean a strong economy.
Raghu Kohli6 min read
The new chairman of the world's most powerful central bank faces a problem his predecessor spent eight years navigating and never quite solved: inflation that won't obey. Only this time, the White House isn't demanding he fix it, it's cheering it on.
Raghu Kohli7 min read
Macro21st April 2026
The Iran war handed the Bank of Japan a policy trap it cannot easily escape. Holding rates to avoid a growth shock is letting the yen slide toward levels that historically trigger intervention. Hiking to defend the currency risks making the growth shock worse.
Raghu Kohli8 min read
Six central bank holds in 48 hours, Brent crude approaching $96, and a US-Iran military conflict have shattered the consensus rate narrative of early 2026, resetting the dollar, the yen, and the entire FX outlook.
Raghu Kohli6 min read