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Macro15 July 2026
China's factories are shipping more than they have in years, driven by an AI-fuelled tech boom. Yet second-quarter growth still slowed to 4.3%, its weakest in decades outside the pandemic, a reminder that strong exports don't always mean a strong economy.
Raghu Kohli6 min read
Read ArticleThe new chairman of the world's most powerful central bank faces a problem his predecessor spent eight years navigating and never quite solved: inflation that won't obey. Only this time, the White House isn't demanding he fix it, it's cheering it on.
Federal ReserveInflationMonetary PolicyBank of EnglandUnited States
Raghu Kohli7 min read
Read ArticleMacro21 April 2026
The Iran war handed the Bank of Japan a policy trap it cannot easily escape. Holding rates to avoid a growth shock is letting the yen slide toward levels that historically trigger intervention. Hiking to defend the currency risks making the growth shock worse.
Japanese YenBank of JapanFXIranMonetary PolicyStagflation
Raghu Kohli8 min read
Read ArticleSix central bank holds in 48 hours, Brent crude approaching $96, and a US-Iran military conflict have shattered the consensus rate narrative of early 2026, resetting the dollar, the yen, and the entire FX outlook.
FXFederal ReserveBank of EnglandBank of JapanOilGeopoliticsUS Dollar
Raghu Kohli6 min read
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