Markets27 Apr 2026
Why Goldman Sachs Was the Last Fund Standing
Goldman's near miss looked like good news. It was really a warning about everything else.
Private CreditGoldman SachsLiquidityCredit Risk
Abir Ghosh Biswas5 min read
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Betting on Everything: How Prediction Markets Price the Future
Prediction markets are booming, with Bernstein projecting $240 billion in volume this year. The case for why they work is compelling. The case for why they might not is just as important.
Prediction MarketsPolymarketEfficient Market HypothesisPrice DiscoveryCompetition
Jay Patel9 min read
Read ArticleMacro21 Apr 2026
From Globalisation to Fragmentation: Shipping Routes Under Pressure
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are exposing the fragility of global trade, raising the risk that decades of hyper-globalisation begin to fragment.
Global TradeGeopoliticsShippingGlobalisation
Matthew Mahrous6 min read
Read ArticleMacro21 Apr 2026
Japan's Impossible Position: The Yen, the BoJ, and a War It Didn't Start
The Iran war handed the Bank of Japan a policy trap it cannot easily escape. Holding rates to avoid a growth shock is letting the yen slide toward levels that historically trigger intervention. Hiking to defend the currency risks making the growth shock worse.
Japanese YenBank of JapanFXIranMonetary PolicyStagflation
Raghu Kohli8 min read
Read ArticleMarkets21 Apr 2026
The Wall Street Bet on a $5,900 Ticket
A Connecticut credit firm is lending millions against World Cup resale tickets, betting the markup holds. The trade exposes a wider story about how Wall Street is learning to finance scarcity.
Sonal Weerasekera8 min read
Read ArticleWater companies, regulation, and accountability: is UK policy failing?
Is the problem water companies, or the system meant to regulate them?
WaterRegulationPolicyAccountability
Josh Dolan3 min read
Read ArticlePrivate CreditMarkets14 Apr 2026
When the exit doors close: private credit's liquidity reckoning
Investors attempted to pull more than $20bn from the largest private credit funds in Q1 2026, only to find the exits partially closed. The episode marks the sector's first real test of cycle maturity.
Sonal Weerasekera6 min read
Read ArticleThe War America Can't Afford
The war in Iran is testing the informal bargain that has let America borrow cheaply for half a century. The allies whose cooperation sustains that privilege had no say in the conflict, yet they are bearing its economic cost.
IranFederal ReserveInterest Rates
Jack Childs16 min read
Read ArticleHold the Line: Why the Bank of England Should Keep Rates at 3.75%
The MPC meets on 30 April facing a textbook stagflationary bind. The evidence favours holding steady over a premature hike.
Bank of EnglandInterest RatesInflationIran WarUK Economy
Rohan Talwar11 min read
Read ArticleMarketsPrivate EquityOpinion7 Apr 2026
The Dealmaking Freeze: Private Equity's Double Threat
Buyout activity fell 36 per cent in Q1 2026 as the Gulf conflict and AI disruption to software converge to freeze dealmaking across the private equity industry.
Alexander Eklund5 min read
Read ArticlePublic PolicyOpinion6 Apr 2026
Taxing inheritance or taxing growth? The politics of UK farm tax reform
Labour's new inheritance tax reforms cap relief on agricultural assets at £2.5 million, introducing an effective 20% tax above this threshold and reshaping how family farms are passed on.
TaxGovernmentFarmersInheritanceAgriculture
Josh Dolan3 min read
Read ArticleMarkets5 Apr 2026
Turbulence Ahead: Why Airlines Cannot Simply Pass On the Oil Shock
Jet fuel prices have doubled since February, but airlines face a microeconomic bind: raise fares too fast and passengers vanish, raise them too slowly and margins collapse.
AirlinesOil PricesPrice ElasticityIranMicroeconomics
Jay Patel7 min read
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