Author
Macro21 Apr 2026
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are exposing the fragility of global trade, raising the risk that decades of hyper-globalisation begin to fragment.
Global TradeGeopoliticsShippingGlobalisation
Matthew Mahrous6 min read
Read ArticleMacro21 Apr 2026
The Iran war handed the Bank of Japan a policy trap it cannot easily escape. Holding rates to avoid a growth shock is letting the yen slide toward levels that historically trigger intervention. Hiking to defend the currency risks making the growth shock worse.
Japanese YenBank of JapanFXIranMonetary PolicyStagflation
Raghu Kohli8 min read
Read ArticleThe MPC meets on 30 April facing a textbook stagflationary bind. The evidence favours holding steady over a premature hike.
Bank of EnglandInterest RatesInflationIran WarUK Economy
Rohan Talwar11 min read
Read ArticleMarketsPrivate EquityOpinion7 Apr 2026
Buyout activity fell 36 per cent in Q1 2026 as the Gulf conflict and AI disruption to software converge to freeze dealmaking across the private equity industry.
Alexander Eklund5 min read
Read ArticleMarkets5 Apr 2026
Jet fuel prices have doubled since February, but airlines face a microeconomic bind: raise fares too fast and passengers vanish, raise them too slowly and margins collapse.
AirlinesOil PricesPrice ElasticityIranMicroeconomics
Jay Patel7 min read
Read ArticleMacroCurrent Affairs28 Mar 2026
Oil prices are being driven by geopolitics, not fundamentals, raising doubts over whether this is real scarcity or just a temporary risk premium.
CommoditiesGeopoliticsOilBackwardation
Matthew Mahrous4 min read
Read ArticleSix central bank holds in 48 hours, Brent crude approaching $96, and a US-Iran military conflict have shattered the consensus rate narrative of early 2026, resetting the dollar, the yen, and the entire FX outlook.
FXFederal ReserveBank of EnglandBank of JapanOilGeopoliticsUS Dollar
Raghu Kohli6 min read
Read ArticleMarketsPrivate Credit16 Mar 2026
Retail investors are pulling billions, insiders say defaults are already here, and banks are quietly tightening credit. The mixed signals across private credit mask a single uncomfortable truth.
Private CreditPrivate EquityRiskWall Street
Alexander Eklund7 min read
Read ArticleMarketsPrivate Credit12 Mar 2026
Partners Group Chair Steffen Meister warns AI will create an asymmetric disaster for private credit, where lenders absorb the losses from disrupted companies while capturing none of the upside.
Rohan Talwar6 min read
Read ArticleMarketsPrivate Credit4 Mar 2026
Investors pulled $3.7 billion from the world's largest private credit fund. BCRED has posted its first ever net outflows, signalling a turning point for the entire industry.
Rohan Talwar5 min read
Read ArticleMarketsPrivate Credit24 Feb 2026
Blue Owl permanently restricts investors from withdrawing cash from its inaugural retail debt fund, backtracking on plans to reopen redemptions this quarter.
Oscar McGuinness6 min read
Read Article