Central banks set interest rates, steer inflation and stand behind the financial system. Our researchers follow the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, and what their decisions mean.
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Robert Hall and Michael Woodford won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics for rebuilding macroeconomic models around how households and firms form expectations. This piece provides an insight into their work and what it means for central banks today.
7 min read
Japan's currency has continued to fall despite rising interest rates, exposing the limits of monetary policy when global markets move against domestic priorities.
France’s bond revolt is starting to look less like a market wobble and more like a eurozone-style warning, as political paralysis, rising borrowing costs and a government with little incentive to shrink the debt pile threaten to drain investor confidence and leave the French economy paying the bill.
Trump's promised $5,000 dividend has no confirmed funding source, raising questions about its inflation and economic risks. Here's what the numbers say.
The AI equity surge is spilling into the bond market, keeping US Treasury yields higher than what many think can be sustained. The AI Hyperscalers are expected to spend $700 billion this year. With no sign of slowing capital expenditures, how much more can the bond market take?
Nigeria's currency, reserves and growth are stronger than they have been in years, but poverty and inflation numbers show the recovery has not yet reached most households.
Germany has abandoned the borrowing rules that defined it, and the euro zone is heading for record bond supply just as the ECB stops buying and starts tightening. Yields are climbing accordingly. The question is no longer whether Europe can borrow, but whether what it buys with the money is worth what the money now costs.
A divided Fed, a still-roaring AI rally and an Iran framework that collapsed within a fortnight pulled markets in three directions across August. The whiplash between them is a live lesson in how risk gets priced.
Payroll shocks and tame inflation managed to undo a month of Fed hawkishness. The economy just got worse, but Wall Street just got happier.
Why the bond market may have become America’s biggest macroeconomic problem
The won went from one of Asia's worst-performing currencies to one of the world's best in a matter of weeks, as chipmakers' overseas earnings came home, foreign equity selling eased, and the Bank of Korea ended a three-year rate freeze.
Three of nine voted to raise Bank Rate. The Bank's own Report then said the market curve is steeper than policy needs to be, and that most of its slope is not a rate expectation.
New Fed chair Kevin Warsh was expected to bring a dovish, rate-cutting sensibility to the central bank. Instead, his first meeting delivered the most hawkish surprise markets have seen in years, with traders now pricing in the Fed's first hike since 2023.
The Iran war sent oil prices soaring and hit every major economy at once, yet the Fed, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank all responded differently. The divergence turned not on the shock itself but on each bank's headroom, growth outlook, and framework for interpreting supply-driven inflation.
The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate five times since 2024, yet the yen just hit a forty year low. Here is what two years of tightening have actually changed, and what is likely to happen next.
The new chairman of the world's most powerful central bank faces a problem his predecessor spent eight years navigating and never quite solved: inflation that won't obey. Only this time, the White House isn't demanding he fix it, it's cheering it on.
The Iran war handed the Bank of Japan a policy trap it cannot easily escape. Holding rates to avoid a growth shock is letting the yen slide toward levels that historically trigger intervention. Hiking to defend the currency risks making the growth shock worse.
The war in Iran is testing the informal bargain that has let America borrow cheaply for half a century. The allies whose cooperation sustains that privilege had no say in the conflict, yet they are bearing its economic cost.
The MPC meets on 30 April facing a textbook stagflationary bind. The evidence favours holding steady over a premature hike.
Six central bank holds in 48 hours, Brent crude approaching $96, and a US-Iran military conflict have shattered the consensus rate narrative of early 2026, resetting the dollar, the yen, and the entire FX outlook.
Record unsold assets, zombie funds, and pension pain. Why the private equity industry is at a structural turning point.