Inflation sets the cost of living, the path of interest rates and what savings are worth. Our researchers follow the figures as they are published, what drives them and how central banks respond.
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Robert Hall and Michael Woodford won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics for rebuilding macroeconomic models around how households and firms form expectations. This piece provides an insight into their work and what it means for central banks today.
7 min read
Trump's promised $5,000 dividend has no confirmed funding source, raising questions about its inflation and economic risks. Here's what the numbers say.
A divided Fed, a still-roaring AI rally and an Iran framework that collapsed within a fortnight pulled markets in three directions across August. The whiplash between them is a live lesson in how risk gets priced.
Payroll shocks and tame inflation managed to undo a month of Fed hawkishness. The economy just got worse, but Wall Street just got happier.
Why the bond market may have become America’s biggest macroeconomic problem
Three of nine voted to raise Bank Rate. The Bank's own Report then said the market curve is steeper than policy needs to be, and that most of its slope is not a rate expectation.
Repeated heatwaves are no longer a seasonal inconvenience for Europe's economies. From lost labour productivity to rising food prices and multi-billion-euro damage bills, extreme heat is emerging as a structural drag on growth across the continent.
New Fed chair Kevin Warsh was expected to bring a dovish, rate-cutting sensibility to the central bank. Instead, his first meeting delivered the most hawkish surprise markets have seen in years, with traders now pricing in the Fed's first hike since 2023.
Argentina's disinflation looks like a policy triumph on paper, but the currency framework enabling it may be quietly rebuilding the fragility it was designed to end.
The Iran war sent oil prices soaring and hit every major economy at once, yet the Fed, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank all responded differently. The divergence turned not on the shock itself but on each bank's headroom, growth outlook, and framework for interpreting supply-driven inflation.
The new chairman of the world's most powerful central bank faces a problem his predecessor spent eight years navigating and never quite solved: inflation that won't obey. Only this time, the White House isn't demanding he fix it, it's cheering it on.
The MPC meets on 30 April facing a textbook stagflationary bind. The evidence favours holding steady over a premature hike.
How tensions involving Iran are driving energy prices and reshaping UK politics.